"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can't fool all the people all of the time." Attributed to Abraham Lincoln. I decided I don't want to be in any of these three categories. I am only interested in one thing, truth.
Theories abound when it comes to the topics of climate change and global warming. Many are not knowledgeable enough to even distinguish between the two. So much of what we hear from the politicians, the media, what read online, much of the [supposed] scientific community, the 'tree-huggers' and the 'conspiracy theorists' (deniers), etc. are falsehoods and distortions of fact, that it is almost impossible to know which side is up and what information can be trusted for us to form knowledgeable opinions.
If hard, physical, scientific evidence is irrefutable, why is disagreement on the topic so polarizing? Are the disagreements valid? Which [side] is right, the Climate Change Deniers or the Chicken Littles who run around shouting, "The sky is falling!"? Perhaps the truth is hidden somewhere in between?
I watched an interesting video, Climate Science and the Myths of Renewable Energy by Steve Goreham. Goreham made numerous statements concerning climate change, global warming and renewable energy in his video, so I decided to investigate each topic, one-by-one.
This blog/article endeavours to provide FACTS; not opinions, not theories, not speculation, just simple, verifiable facts; a SNOPES of climate change and global warming, if you will. Individuals who read this article and find verifiable errors are invited to submit suggestions so corrections can be made where warranted, so this article will constantly be a work in progress. Attribution links are embedded. So, here we go...
FACT CHECK No. 1 "Ninety-seven percent of scientists agree: climate change is real, man-made and dangerous." President Barack Obama.
Is this an outrageous claim, or is there an ounce of truth?
The statistic to which Obama refers was obtained from an on-line survey conducted by Doran and Zimmerman in 2009. "An invitation to participate in the survey was sent to 10,257 Earth scientists. The database was built from Keane and Martinez [Directory of Geoscience Departments, 45th Edition, 2007]" Two questions were asked:
FACT CHECK No. 1 "Ninety-seven percent of scientists agree: climate change is real, man-made and dangerous." President Barack Obama.
Is this an outrageous claim, or is there an ounce of truth?
The statistic to which Obama refers was obtained from an on-line survey conducted by Doran and Zimmerman in 2009. "An invitation to participate in the survey was sent to 10,257 Earth scientists. The database was built from Keane and Martinez [Directory of Geoscience Departments, 45th Edition, 2007]" Two questions were asked:
1. When compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?
2. Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?"
The survey had a 30.7% response rate (90% of which were from the USA). Of the 3,146 respondents 79 were climatologists (2.5% of respondents). Of the climatologists, 96.2% (76 of 79) answered “risen” to question 1 and 97.4% (75 of 77) answered "yes" to question 2. No names are provided so the results are unverifiable. This is where the "ninety-seven percent" statistic comes from.
Compare this statistic to a 2007 mail-in petition organized by Frederick Seitz, Past President, National Academy of Sciences, U.S.A., President Emeritus, Rockefeller University, which 31,487 American scientists (all listed by name) responded and signed including 9,029 with PhDs.
Compare this statistic to a 2007 mail-in petition organized by Frederick Seitz, Past President, National Academy of Sciences, U.S.A., President Emeritus, Rockefeller University, which 31,487 American scientists (all listed by name) responded and signed including 9,029 with PhDs.
A summary scientific paper Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide was mailed out with the petition request.
One of the biggest issues we face today is strategic manipulation of the facts. For example, for the illustration below I divided the number of scientists who signed the petition by the 76 climate scientists referenced by Barack Obama to arrive at this result. The reality it is a meaningless number, just like the 97%.
What do you think?
